Panoeconomicus

The Attribution of Causality, Perception of Responsibility, and Preferred Generic Means of Life Distribution

Iana Okhrimenko — 2024-04-23

The attribution of causality, a central concept in human cognition theory, is the principal instrument for investigating functional links between events and phenomena. Although the links between causality and moral responsibility are commonly recognized, the scope of studies analysing the practical implications of causality attribution is minimal. This study examines the effect of causality perception on the desired distribution of the generic means of life by utilising thought experiment data collection methodology and non-parametric statistical analysis. The results indicate that i) causality perception affects the desired distribution, and ii) individuals show no tendency to modify their perception of causality.

Keywords: Causality, Bayesian model of cognition, Social distribution.

JEL: A12, B55, C83.

Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, and Trade Openness Nexus: Evidence from Net Energy Importing Middle-Income Countries

Haşmet Sarıgül — 2024-04-23

The study explores both the long- and short-run liaisons between three conceptual dimensions: economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness in 29 net energy importing middle-income economies using annual data from 1990 to 2019. We hereby assess ARDL models which examine the long-run links by integrations in between these three conceptual variables, and additionally Dumitrescu–Hurlin and Granger causality tests for panel and individual country models, respectively. For panel country samples, we reveal bidirectional causality connection between trade openness and economic growth along with unidirectional causalities from economic growth to energy consumption and from energy consumption to trade openness in the short run. Bidirectional positive feedback relationships stand between economic growth– energy consumption and trade openness– energy consumption in the full sample and the upper middle–middle economies subsample in the long run. Findings for individual country estimations reveal significant long-run relationships between energy consumption and economic growth in 12, energy consumption –and trade openness in 6, and economic growth –and trade openness in 9 of the middle-income economies examined.

JEL: C22, C23, F14, Q43, O50.

The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach for Turkey

Halim Can Avcı — 2024-04-23

Until the Augmented Neo-Classical Growth Model developed by Mankiw, Romer and Weil, growth theories have ignored the human capital factor. This study aims to investigate the impact of health on economic growth in Turkey between 1960-2014 through a production function that includes human capital. Health and education are included in the production function as the two main components of human capital. The Multivariate Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test was conducted for empirical analysis. As a result, a significant long-term cointegration relationship was found between the variables. The results also indicate that a 1% increase in life expectancy at birth leads to a 0.67% increase in GDP, a 1% increase in the number of students per teacher in vocational and technical secondary education leads to a 0.21% decrease in GDP, and a 1% increase in the number of students per teacher in tertiary education leads to a 0.21% increase in GDP.

Keywords: Economic growth, Health, ARDL bounds test, Production function, Turkey.

JEL: C32, I10, I20, O40.

Key Sector Analysis by IO Networks: Evidence From Turkey

Yasemin Asu Çırpıcı — 2024-04-23

In this study, the key sectors of Turkey are determined using Input-Output (IO) network analysis. Different centrality measures are analyzed and compared. Accordingly, eigenvector, page rank, hub, and authority centralities are calculated. The effects of an economic shock are also analyzed using random walk centrality and counting betweenness. Findings indicate that the key sectors are “Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles”, “Transport, Storage and Communications”, “Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry”, “Construction”, “Real Estate Activities”, and “Textiles, Textile Products, Leather and Footwear”. Furthermore, the same sectors are determined to be vulnerable to economic shocks.

JEL: C67, L14, D85.

The Buchanan-Wagner Hypothesis: Revisiting the Theory with New Empirics for a Spendthrift Democracy

Debi Konukcu Onal — 2024-04-23

This study revisits the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis in reference to the deficit-spending dynamics of Turkey in the period 1924 to 2008, during which the government was expanding along with the developing national economy and democracy. The empirical analysis of the hypothesis is based on the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration, which is not only quite new in the literature on the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis but also superior to other single-equation cointegration approaches. The prevailing empirics for the Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis reveal deficiencies in several respects, as they ignore the mixed orders of integration in regressors, the endogeneity of regressors, and the encompassing dynamic structure in the short and long runs. Within this context, the findings of this study imply the validity of the hypothesis for Turkey, providing empirical evidence on the premise that budget deficits financed by nontax sources are the main driving force behind the continuously increasing public spending in Turkey. This evidence is argued to be a reflection of the fact that the perceived tax price of public goods and services decreases with debt-financed budget deficits over time.

Keywords: Buchanan-Wagner hypothesis, Budget deficits, Public spending, Turkey, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach

JEL: C50, H41, H60

Is Global Climate Change Affecting Intra-Industry Trade? Econometric Evidence for the Fisheries Sector in Turkey

Ahmet Emrah Tayyar — 2024-04-23

The main objective of this study was to investigate whether the intra-industrial trade structure of the Turkish fisheries sector has been affected by global climate change. Therefore, the surface temperatures of the Black Sea, Marmara, Mediteranean and Aegean seas and the Grubel-Lloyd index values related to the sector for the period 1985-2017 were used as variables in the study. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test was used to determine the cointegration relationship between variables and to predict long-term coefficients. The Error Correction Model (ECM) method was used to determine the short-term coefficients. According to the results of the analyses; i) There is a long-term relationship between the variables. ii) Increases in the surface temperature of the Aegean, Mediterranean and Marmara seas have reduced intra-industrial trade in the long term. iii) The increase in the Black Sea surface temperature has increased intra-industry trade in the long term. iv) The increase in sea surface temperatures has shown a tendency to increase intra-industry trade from the southern seas towards the northern seas in Turkey. Consequently, global climate change can be considered as a change in intra-industry trade for both the country and the industry.

Keywords: Global climate change, Intra-industry trade, Grubel-Lloyd index, Fisheries sector, Turkey.

JEL: Q54, F14, Q17, Q56, Q22, F18.

Why the West Can’t Win: From Bretton Woods to a Multipolar World by Fady Lama

Alpar Lošonc — 2024-04-23