Taux de change réel d’équilibre et mésalignements: Enseignements d’un modèle VAR-ECM pour le cas de la Tunisie

Abstract

Tunisia has experienced a performance when pursuing a constant real exchange rate rule. The limitations of this rule are beginning to emerge in the context of a more open economy, which desire to relax capital controls. This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate of the dinar vis à vis the euro and the $US from 1983 to 2000, using quarterly data, based on the following fundamental variables: terms of trade, net capital inflows and the differential of productivity. Results show that Tunisian dinar was overvalued before the 1986 devaluation, becomes close to its equilibrium value over the 90s'. In the beginning of this century (2000), authorities permit a larger fluctuation of the real effective exchange rate.

Key words: Equilibrium real exchange rate, Misalignment, Cointegration.
JEL: C22, F31, F37.