Panoeconomicus

Uncertainty and Demand for Business Loans: A Study of Selected Countries in the Euro Area

2022-06-06T00:22:23+02:00

This paper studies the effect of uncertainty shocks on the demand for business loans in individual euro area countries. The results of Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR) model impulse response functions show that in some countries the overall demand for business loans, and particularly the demand for business loans for fixed-investment financing, respond significantly negatively to the shock.

Keywords: Demand for business loans, Uncertainty, Bayesian VAR.

JEL: D81, E32, E44.

Spillover Impact of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy and Uncertainties on Stock-Bond Correlations

2021-01-20T00:20:49+01:00

This paper investigates the spillover impact of US unconventional monetary policy and uncertainty factors on the time-varying co-movements between the US stock market and 14 advanced countries’ bond markets, as based on monthly data from January 2002, to October 2015, and utilising the conditional nonlinear quantile regression approach. The empirical results reveal that US unconventional monetary policy has an asymmetric positive effect on stock–bond market co-movements, with a nonlinear effect in France and Denmark and a strong effect in the UK and Finland. Further, US bond market uncertainty has heterogeneous effects on stock–bond market co-movements, with a nonlinear effect in France and Denmark and a strong effect in Finland and Sweden. In addition, default risk spread positively influences stock–bond market co-movements across most countries for all quantiles. In contrast, stock–bond market co-movements negatively and symmetrically respond to the US stock market uncertainty in most countries. Finally, stock–bond co-movements exhibit mixed responses to US economic policy uncertainty across countries. Our results have valuable implications for international investors who allocate capital across developed countries’ stock and bond markets. Our findings provide important information for financial communities with regard to diversification and hedging.

Keywords: Cross-country cross-asset correlations, Unconventional monetary policy, Uncertainties, Quantile regression.

JEL: G15, E52, C22.

A Proper Developmental State Framework for Greece

2022-08-26T06:37:50+02:00

Post World War II, Greece was enjoying, by and large, significant economic growth that was only slightly lower than that of other Western European nations. However, immediately after the financial crisis of 2007-08, the country faced a sovereign debt crisis. This continuing multifaceted crisis reached the populace as a series of restrictive measures and sudden reforms (what Galbraith, 2016, labels ‘economic policy as moral abomination’), which resulted in a very long recession, high unemployment, massive inequalities and marginalization, increased social exclusion, and huge migration of thousands of well-educated Greeks. Within such economic development context, this contribution provides an overview of Greece’s past economic development efforts and challenges (Section 2); discusses important notions of a highly interventionist developmental state framework with ‘Greek characteristics’ as its main focus (Section 3); and offers developmental state-based policy implications, which are deemed necessary for the revival and global repositioning of Greek industrial sectors of high potential and achievability (Section 4). Summary and conclusions end the article.

JEL: F1, F6, O1, O2.

The Impact of Excess Capacity on the Investment Falloff

2022-07-16T09:29:04+02:00

I documented a widespread decline in the rate of capacity utilization in the US manufacturing industry during the last decades, which parallels a worsening trend of gross capital formation. I conducted several exploratory exercises to investigate whether utilization rates were actually related to the investment performance during 1952-2014. Vector auto-regressive estimates imply a non-trivial quantitative relationship between utilization rates and investment, which accounts for a decline equivalent to more than 30% of the average investment falloff over the whole period considered. Finally, I used firm-level data to control for other investment determinants. The relationship remains statistically and economically significant. In addition, I found a link between past accumulated utilization variation and current investment, suggesting that excess capacity could be a relevant force behind current investment weakness.

JEL: E20, E22.

Keywords: Investment, Capacity utilization.

Youth Emancipation and the Labour Market in Spain

2022-07-20T00:25:47+02:00

This paper studies the effects of a negative economic shock on short- and long-term youth emancipation in Spain over the period 1995-2017. We use a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with different endogenous and exogenous variables which might have an impact on youth residential emancipation according to the academic literature. The results show how emancipation is impacted negatively by the shock after two quarters on average. Following this, the situation returns to its prior state at an accelerated rate. We also find that, in the short term, the unemployment rate has a greater influence than the temporary employment rate on youth emancipation. In the long term, this trend is reversed. To conclude, we find that emancipation processes do not depend as much on entry into the labour market as they do on the conditions to stay in it.

Keywords: Youth emancipation, Labour market, VAR, Economic crisis.

JEL: J13, J64, R21.

Toward a Cashless Society. Cash and Non-Cash Payments in Spain, 1989-2014

2023-03-01T23:52:59+01:00

This work investigates the relationships between the retail payment system, monetary aggregates and economic activity in Spain from a long-run perspective. This approach is considered from the perspective of the transformations favored by ICT in the payment system, which incorporates increasingly more and more cashless instruments. The methodology used is based on cointegration analysis and error correction models. Likewise, a new indicator of some trends in the implementation of cashless transactions in payment systems is proposed; this measure has been applied to Spain and other European countries. With respect to long-run relationships, we demonstrate the relevant (and direct) impact of changes in the monetary system and national income on the value of cashless transactions. Regarding the short run, the most important relationships in terms of the value of cashless transactions are those related to the real estate sector. The empirical results evidence the intensive progress of the cashless society in Spain, where the banking sector, regulatory changes and ICT development have played a key role.

JEL: E42; E51; G20.

The Moderating Effect of Social Capital on Fiscal Policy Responses to COVID- 19: Cross-Country Evidence

2021-06-23T14:32:34+02:00

This study suggests that an adequate level of social capital with a robust health profile might be associated with positive policy outcomes in combating COVID-19. We investigate the effect of interaction between fiscal policy responses and social capital on the spreading of the pandemic, by considering the country health profile, demographic and economic factors, in a cross-section of 94 countries. Firstly, the results of the analysis indicate the moderating effect of social capital on keeping the pandemic under control through fiscal policy measures. In particular, strong bilateral and family ties as well as better coordination and cooperation at the community level can facilitate the goal of fiscal policy measures. The results also reveal that the declining effect of fiscal policy on the pandemic mostly arises from the relatively high social capital levels, while it loses its effectiveness at low levels. Secondly, the findings emphasize the role of behavioural risk factors, care systems and preventative interventions as prominent determinants of surviving in pandemic. Thirdly, we conclude that taking specific measures for identified vulnerable and high-risk groups is quite important in overcoming the disease.

Key words: COVID-19, Pandemic, Social capital, Fiscal policy.

JEL: C1, H3, H8.

Climate Future: Averting and Adapting to Climate Change by Robert S. Pindyck

2023-05-27T17:23:51+02:00

A Modern Guide to Post-Keynesian Institutional Economics by Charles J. Whalen

2023-05-27T17:30:22+02:00