Sustainability of Merchandise Trade Flows between Croatia and Other EU Member States - Panel Cointegration Approach

  • Mile Bošnjak SKDD – CCP Smart Clear Inc., Croatia
  • Vlatka Bilas Department of International Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Croatia
  • Ivan Novak Department of International Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract

This research examined the sustainability of merchandise trade flows between Croatia and other EU member states. Merchandise exports and imports were disaggregated into bilateral merchandise trade flows between Croatia and nineteen European Union trading partners for the period 1999–2014. Following Granger causality and cointegration tests for panel data, we specified the model to be estimated. Using a pooled mean group estimator for dynamic heterogeneous panel data, the relationship between Croatian merchandise export and import was assessed empirically. Research results revealed unsustainable Croatian merchandise exports and imports vis-a-vis her nineteen European Union trading partners.


Key words: Merchandise trade, Panel cointegration, Croatia, EU


JEL: C33, F14, F43.


Održivost trgovinskih tokova robe između Hrvatske i drugih država članica EU - kointegracioni panel pristup

U istraživanju je ispitana održivost robnih trgovinskih tokova između Hrvatske i drugih država članica Evropske unije (EU). Izvoz i uvoz robe su raščlanjeni na bilateralne trgovinske tokove između Hrvatske i devetnaest trgovinskih partnera iz EU za period 1999-2014. Nakon Grangerovih testova uzročnosti i testova kointegracije za panel podatke, odredili smo model koji treba oceniti. Koristeći metod združenih grupnih sredina (PMG) za ocenu dinamičkih heterogenih panel podataka, empirijski je ispitan odnos između hrvatskog izvoza i uvoza robe. Rezultati istraživanja su otkrili neodrživi robni izvoz i uvoz Hrvatske vis-à-vis devetnaest partnera iz EU.


Ključne reči: Robna trgovina, panel kointegracija, Hrvatska, EU.

How to Cite
Bošnjak M., Bilas V., & Novak I. (2018). Sustainability of Merchandise Trade Flows between Croatia and Other EU Member States - Panel Cointegration Approach. Panoeconomicus, 66(1), 113-131. doi:10.2298/PAN160409022B
Section
Original scientific paper