Testing for Financial Contagion: New Evidence from the European Debt Crisis

Abstract

This paper tested for a contagion effect between the foreign exchange market of the Eurozone and the markets of seven emerging and growth leading economies – EAGLEs- during the European Debt Crisis. For this purpose, we used the daily domestic currency per unit of USD Dollar of seven EAGLEs countries from 01.01.2007 to 31.12.2012. The tranquil period was from 01.01.2007 to 19.10.2009 and the turmoil period was from 20.10.2009 to 31.12.2012. We found a contagion effect between the foreign exchange market of the Eurozone and the markets of Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. The evidence suggests that foreign trade is likely to be the source of the contagion during the European Debt Crisis. The evidence presented in this paper is important for policy makers, international investors, and portfolio managers.

Key words: Financial contagion, Economic crisis, European debt crisis, DCC-GARCH.

JEL: E44 , F31 , G01.

Testiranje na finansijsku zarazu: Novi dokazi iz evropske dužničke krize

U radu je testiran efekat finansijske zaraze između deviznog tržišta eurozone i tržišta sedam ekonomija u razvoju i vodećih u rastu - EAGLE - tokom evropske dužničke krize. U tu svrhu koristili smo dnevnu domaću valutu po jedinici dolara USD u sedam EAGLEs zemalja od 01.01.2007. do 31.12.2012. Mirno razdoblje bilo je od 01.01.2007. do 19.10.2009. godine, a razdoblje neizvesnosti od 20.10.2009. do 31.12.2012. Pronašli smo zarazni efekat između deviznog tržišta eurozone i tržišta Brazila, Meksika i Turske. Dokazi ukazuju na to da je spoljna trgovina verovatno izvor zaraze tokom evropske dužničke krize. Dokazi predstavljeni u ovom radu važni su za kreatore politika, međunarodne investitore i menadžere portfolia.

Ključne reči: Finansijska zaraza, ekonomska kriza, evropska dužnička kriza, DCC-GARCH.