Une analyse de l’exposition au risque de change du portefeuille de la dette publique de la Tunisie: application de l’approche VaR
An Analysis of Exchange Rate Risk Exposure Related to the Public Debt Portfolio of Tunisia: Beyond VaR Approach
Keywords:Public debt management, Exchange risk, Value at risk, Tunisia
The aim of this study is to assess the exchange rate risk associated with the Tunisian public debt portfolio through Value-at-Risk (VaR) methodology. We use daily spot exchange rates of the Tunisian dinar against the three main debt currencies, the dollar, the euro and the yen. Our period of interest is from 02/01/2004 to 31/12/2008. Thetas and Marginal VaR analysis reveal that Japanese yen is the most risky currency constituting the Tunisian public debt portfolio. American dollar appears as a source of risk for the Tunisian external debt but remains less risky than the yen, while, the euro constitutes a hedge currency for exchange risk management associated with the Tunisian public debt portfolio.
Mots clés: Gestion de la dette publique, Risque de change, Value at Risk, Tunisie.
Key words: Public debt management, Exchange risk, Value at risk, Tunisia.
JEL: F34, G18, H63.