The Fundamentals of the Portuguese Crisis
Keywords:Growth, Debt, Saving, Dutch disease, Unemployment, Budget policy
This paper analyses the fundamentals of the Portuguese crisis. The financial crisis of 2007 worsened and triggered the current Portuguese crisis. We argue that the main problem the economy is facing is its output stagnation due to a kind of Dutch disease that has created high and increasing levels of indebtedness, low and decreasing levels of saving and has reduced Portuguese competitiveness. Moreover, the existence of a dualist labour market and a new wave of emigration produce inefficiency, increasing unemployment of younger workers and the supply of human capital abroad funded by the Portuguese taxpayers. Governance problems such as poor public budget governance and lack of transparency and accountability are also at stake. These governance problems must be solved to allow the economy to return to its long-run growth path.
Key words: Growth, Debt, Saving, Dutch disease, Unemployment, Budget policy.
JEL: E21, F34, G01, H10, H63.