The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth: An Application to Turkey

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the sensitivity of the Turkish economy’s natural rate of growth to the actual rate of growth, covering the period 1980-2008. To determine the reason why the natural rate of growth is endogenous, the long-run and the causality relationships between real gross domestic product and each of the production factors (labour force and physical capital stock) are investigated with the bounds test. The natural rate of growth for the Turkish economy is found to be at 4.97 percent and the actual rate of growth in boom periods is approximately 35.6 percent; indicating endogeneity. However, according to the causality test results, the endogeneity of the natural rate of growth may be attributed to the total factor productivity rather than the labour force and physical capital stock. This result is important and the debate on this subject may lead to further studies.

Key words: The natural rate of growth, The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth, ARDL approach, Causality tests.
JEL: O40, E10, E23, C22.