«Quels régimes de change pour les marchés émergents ? Les solutions de coins en questions»

Abstract

During the 90s, recurrent exchange rate crises in emerging markets have shown the extreme fragility of soft pegs, the so-called intermediate exchange rate regimes. As a result, numerous academic economists but also International institutions have promoted a new consensus: domestic authorities have to choose their exchange rate regime between only two solutions called corner solutions or extreme regimes: hard pegs or independent floating. This paper questions de relevance of this consensus. We stress the main advantages and costs of each corner solution. We conclude by stressing that intermediate regimes associated to an inflation targeting framework seem a better solution for emerging countries than corner solutions.

Key words: Soft peg, Hard peg, Corner solution, Inflation targeting.
JEL: F33, F41.