Heterogeneity of Growth in the West Balkans and Emerging Europe: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Approach

Abstract

This paper explores the heterogeneity of growth in the Western Balkan and Emerging European economies. For that purpose, growth determinants are estimated in the period 1997-2009 by dynamic panel data models. The chosen period provides a comparison for the model results with those estimated for the period up to 2007 in order to analyze changes caused by the global instability. According to the main findings of the paper, macroeconomic stabilisation and structural reforms still matter in determining economic growth, but foreign direct investments and economic integrations seem to have the most important role in stimulating growth in the observed countries. Moreover, significant positive effects of foreign direct investments and economic integrations produce differences in growth paths between Emerging European and Western Balkan economies. Sharp decrease of foreign inflows in 2008 determined contractions of growth rates firstly in Emerging European economies with subsequent spill-over on the Western Balkan economies during 2009. Consequently, in the period of global instability, differences between two groups of economies become even more obvious.

Key words: Growth, Emerging European economies, Western Balkan economies, Dynamic panel data model.
JEL: C33, O47, P51.