Globalization of Consumer Confidence

Abstract

The globalization of world economies and the importance of nowcasting analysis have been at the core of the recent literature. Nevertheless, these two strands of research are hardly coupled. This study aims to fill this gap through examining the globalization of the consumer confidence index (CCI) by applying conventional and unconventional econometric methods. The US CCI is used as the benchmark in tests of comovement among the CCIs of several developing and developed countries, with the data sets divided into three sub-periods: global liquidity abundance, the Great Recession, and post-crisis. The existence and/or degree of globalization of the CCIs vary according to the period, whereas globalization in the form of coherence and similar paths is observed only during the Great Recession and, surprisingly, stronger in developing/emerging countries.

Key words: Consumer confidence, Emerging markets, Advanced economies, Wavelet comovement analysis.
JEL: C22, E20, G01, O57.

Globalizacija svetske ekonomije i značaj “nowcasting” analize su srž novije literature. Ipak, ova dva lanca istraživanja je teško spojiti. Ova studija ima za cilj da popuni tu prazninu kroz ispitivanje globalizacije indeksa potrošačkog poverenja (CCI) korišćenjem konvencionalnih i nekonvencionalnih ekonometrijskih metoda. SAD CCI je korišćen kao reper u testovima zajedničkog kretanja između CCI nekoliko zemalja u razvoju i razvijenih zemalja, pri čemu je baza podataka podeljena u tri podgrupe: globalna likvidaciona zastupljenost, velika recesija, i post-kriza. Postojanje i/ili stepen globalizacije. CCI varira u zavisnosti od perioda, dok je globalizacija u vidu koherentnosti i sličnosti kretanja uočena jedino tokom velike recesije i, iznenađujuće, jače u zemljama u razvoju/emergentnim zemljama.

Ključne reči: Potrošačko poverenje, emergentna tržišta, razvijene ekonomije, analiza zajedničkog talasanja.