What are the Treatment Effects of a Work-First Participation Programme on Young Unemployed People in the Netherlands?

Abstract

This paper evaluates the effects of the employment programme on young unemployed people in the Netherlands. The effectiveness of the programme is measured by probability of both re-employment and participation within the regular educational system. This evaluation is made in comparison to that of an individual who would continue seeking employment as an openly unemployed person. The effects of the programme are evaluated a year/two years following the start of the programme. We apply a propensity score matching method. The identification of an average treatment effect is based on the conditional independence assumption. The effects on re-employment probability and the probability of participation in the regular educational system are statistically negative, applicable to both long and short-term scenarios.

Key words: Active labour market policy, Treatment effect, Propensity score matching, Dutch labour market.
JEL: C21, J64, J68.

Kakvi su efekti tretmana programa zapošljavanja na mladim nezaposlenim ljudima u Holandiji?

U radu se procenjuju efekti programa zapošljavanja na mlade nezaposlene u Holandiji. Efikasnost programa se meri verovatnoćom ponovnog zapošljavanja i učešća u redovnom obrazovnom sistemu. Ova procena je napravljena u odnosu na osobu koja bi i dalje tražila posao kao otvoreno nezaposlena osoba. Efekti programa se procenjuju godinu/dve nakon početka programa. Primenjujemo metod usklađenosti sa rezultatima. Identifikacija prosečnog efekta tretmana zasniva se na uslovnoj pretpostavci o nezavisnosti. Efekti na verovatnoću ponovnog zapošljavanja i verovatnoću učešća u redovnom obrazovnom sistemu su statistički negativni, primenljivi i na dugoročne i na kratkoročne scenarije.

Ključne reči: Aktivna politika tržišta rada, efekat tretmana, metod usklađenosti sa rezultatima, holandsko tržište rada.