Inventories of Asian Textile Producers, US Cotton Exports, and the Exchange Rate

Abstract

The present paper develops a model with US cotton exports depending on the stock-to-use ratio, trade weighted exchange rates, and the relative cotton prices. The role of inventories in cotton consumption is examined in five textile producing cotton importers, China, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan. Cotton inventory dynamics is diverse among Asian textile producers. Relative prices have negative effect in all markets as expected. Exchange rate elasticities show that effects should be examined for each separate market. Changes in rates of depreciation also have stronger effects than exchange rate. Results reveal that these countries are not all that homogenous.

Key words: Cotton imports, Exchange rates, Stock-to-use ratio, Asian textile producers.
JEL: F14, F31, Q17.