Fiscal and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Turkey: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract

Relying on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag cointegration technique, this paper assesses the comparative effectiveness of the fiscal and monetary policy on output growth in Turkey over the period 2003:q1-2019:q1. The empirical findings show that both policies are effective in promoting output growth but with varying degrees, suggesting that the impact of monetary policy on output growth is more significant than that of fiscal policy. Overall, based on the findings, we can suggest that the Turkish authorities should set sight on monetary policy to achieve higher output growth while seeking ways to improve the growth-enhancing role of fiscal policy. To that end, among many others, budgetary flexibility can be increased through creating fiscal space, and growth-friendly tax and spending reforms can be undertaken without undermining growth-equity trade-off while giving priority to proper coordination of fiscal policy with monetary policy. 

Keywords: Macroeconomic policy, Macroeconomic policy management, Fiscal and monetary policy coordination, Turkey.

JEL: E52, E62, E63.